Theory of Probability and Criminal Procedure: A New Perception of Interpretation of Evidences and Court's Ruling

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to consider whether it would be possible to introduce the so-called Bayes' rule in a contemporary criminal procedure of a civil legal tradition. The Theory of probability, usually discussed within mathematics or statistics is rather marginally, if at all, discussed in the Bosnia and Herzegovina legal literature in general, and in criminal law literature in particular, especially with regard to its implementation in criminal trials for the purpose of getting a court's ruling. On the other side, this theory is well known in Common Law countries, and as such is in the focus of legal theory for a long time. According to purpose several questions are asked in this paper, such as: Is it possible to use the Bayes' rule in the application of the law of evidence for the purpose of obtaining court's judgment? If yes: under what conditions? And finally: What would be consequences of the introduction of such rule? Use of Bayes' rule in Criminal procedure was not been deeply researched in Bosnia and Herzegovina, so the practical implications are better understanding possibilities of its use particularly for interpretation of some kind of evidences.