Evolution of Technology Transfer Talent Development Models in National Innovation System Transitions: The Dual Logic of Path Dependence and Institutional Innovation

Abstract

Purpose: This research examines the evolution of talent improvement frameworks relevant to technology transfer within national innovation systems undergoing rapid institutional change. A dual-logic framework is suggested, based on theories of path dependence and institutional innovation, to explain how historical limitations and innovative needs today jointly shape professional career paths.

Methods: A dual-methods approach is utilized, with historical institutional analysis of China's technology transfer system during the period from 1996 to 2024 complemented by quantitative panel data analysis of 31 provinces with 899 observations. Empirical testing uses fixed-effects regression, instrumental variable methods, and mediation analysis to evaluate the theoretical model and address potential endogeneity issues related to staggered policy implementation schedules.

Results: Path dependence is found to severely limit the innovation of talent improvement frameworks (β = -12.45, p < 0.05), while institutional innovation actively facilitates transformation (β = 3.78, p < 0.001). The ability to implement policy mediates 57% of total institutional innovation effects, with the legislative reform of 2015 found to be a key event resulting in improvement gains of more than 12 points within ten observing years.

Conclusions: The dual-logic model shows successful strategies for talent improvement must find ways to work within existing institutional constraints while, at the same time, to take advantage of environmental pressures and policy implementation capacity to achieve transformation. Variation of treatment effects with respect to divergent development contexts would mean successful innovations require infrastructure investments to be enhanced as well as coordinated policy measures with diverse institutional domains.