The Impact of Inter-Period Business Behavior Correlation on the Externalization of Financial Risk in Listed Companies

Abstract

In order to describe the relationship between behavior and risk diffusion, this paper firstly integrates the intertemporal operational behavior characteristics into a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) framework, and then builds a behavior linkage network. Through the integration of multi-period financial variables and high frequency market data, the model is able to quantitatively identify the risk transfer. Findings indicate that the inclusion of intertemporal operational behavior increases the systemic spillover index by an average of 18.6%. The risk input intensity of a company in a highly linked sample is 27.3% higher than that in a low-linkage sample, and the accuracy of model identification is improved by about 21%. This demonstrates that intertemporal operational behavior significantly amplifies risk diffusion.